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KMID : 1024520160250111521
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Journal of the Environmental Sciences
2016 Volume.25 No. 11 p.1521 ~ p.1530
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Analysis of the Availability of Risk Assessment Model for Typhoon Path which Affected Korean Peninsula
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Park Jong-Kil
Lee Bo-Ram
Jung Woo-Sik
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Abstract
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As a result of dividing typhoon that affected Korean Peninsular between 1999 and 2012 into 7 types of path and entering forecast field and analysis field of RDAPS, until 36 hours from the time of forecast, it is reliable to use the forecast field of RDAPS to predict typhoon and for each typhoon path, the difference between the forecast and the analysis shows normal distribution, which is usable for weather forecast until the 36th hour. In the 48th hour from the time of forecast, the difference of result depending on each typhoon path increased, which was analyzed to be due to errors in the forecast. It was expected that relatively reasonable results should be shown if the 36th hour forecast is used to predict the strength and distribution of strong wind. As a result of using Korean RAM and observing the difference of the maximum damage, reliability was secured up to 36 hours and after 48hours, it was expected that the fluctuation of results may become more severe.
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KEYWORD
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RAM, Typhoon type, Forecast field, Analysis field
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